Every day still a struggle for Hamilton

Baseball Betting Lines

02/03/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas Rangers slugger Josh Hamilton relapsed this past week.

The 2010 American League Most Valuable Player met the media on Friday to address the situation. According to Hamilton a family issue led him to downtown Dallas where he had dinner and had "three or four" drinks.

"You guys all know how hard I play on the field," Hamilton said. "When I don't do that off the field. I leave myself open for a weak moment. And I had a weak moment on Monday in Dallas."

Hamilton called teammate Ian Kinsler to come hang out with him. Kinsler then took him home, but Hamilton returned to the bar and had some more drinks, but did not touch drugs, nor did he want to.

"Ian [Kinsler] did not know I had been drinking because once I do drink I can be very deceptive, very sneaky in a lot of ways," Hamilton said.

He's had two drug tests since the incident.

"Anytime I drink there is a point that comes and the switch flips and you never know when it's going to be," Hamilton said. "Whether it's the first three or four or the 15th. That's why its so dangerous."

At the outset it doesn't appear to be as damaging as the time Hamilton slipped up in Arizona back in 2009 when pictures of him with other women at a bar surfaced on the internet.

But, it was a relapse nonetheless and sadly it probably won't be the last.

"It was just wrong. That's all it comes down to," Hamilton said. "I needed to be in a different place. I needed to be responsible ... I was not responsible."

Everyone knows the story with Hamilton. Selected first overall by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 1999, Hamilton was injured early in his minor league career and fell into a pattern of drug abuse shortly thereafter that ultimately got him suspended from the game.

Tampa eventually cut ties with the outfielder in 2006, leaving him exposed to the Rule 5 Draft where he was selected by the Chicago Cubs before being moved to the Cincinnati Reds later in the day.

Hamilton shined for the Reds in 2007, but was dealt to the Rangers the following winter. Hamilton's comeback really took off in Arlington, as he became an All-Star in 2008, stealing the show with a breathtaking performance in the Home Run Derby at Yankee Stadium that year.

The common denominator in all his past transgressions and his most recent slip-ups has been time away from the game. Injuries at the outset of his career led him to his initial downward spiral and the latest incidents both came in the offseason.

So, here we go again.

You can applaud Hamilton for his honesty, his courage and his willingness to address his addiction without a prepared statement, but you could have also replayed the same press conference he gave after the incident three years ago. It sounded almost the same.

And again, the next time this happens, it will probably be a replay of this one. Yet I'll still continue to root for him because you want him to succeed.

You have to wonder, though, why Hamilton would even go to such a high-profile place. Then again, given his story, which I am sure everyone in the Texas area is probably aware of, why would someone even serve him?

This is a constant struggle for Hamilton, one I can't begin to understand since thankfully addiction is not something that I have had to deal with in any capacity of my life.

As far as baseball goes, the question has to be asked, can the Rangers depend on him long term? Of course there are some out there who are already questioning the Rangers' choice of trying to work out a deal with Hamilton, who

It's a valid argument. Forget the injuries that have plagued him almost all of his career, would you commit the type of money that Hamilton is worth to a player that obviously has demons most people cannot begin to fathom?

When he is on the field, though, he is one of the more dynamic bats in the game, as evidenced by his terrific showing in the Bronx that night and his amazing MVP campaign of two years ago.

But, as he proved this past week, he could always be a drink away from leaving the game forever.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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